i (i) wrote,

CNN, among others, is trying to rile everybody up saying that the superdelegates will choose the democratic nominee. i say BS.

here's the math. my numbers are from NPR.

total pledged delegates: 3253

total super delegates: 796


obama - 1112(p) + 164(s) = 1276
hillary - 979(p) + 241(s) = 1220

ok, assume that hillary continues to get 3/5 of the superdelegates. she will get 478, bringing her current total to 1457.

obama would get 318 superdelegates, bringing his current total to 1430.

there are 1162 pledged delegates left. obama needs 595, or a little more than half, even if hillary still gets her disproportionate share of the superdelegates. hillary only needs to get 568 if she can hold on to her superdelegate lead.

definitely doable, either way, and likely. i'd say more likely for obama because superdelegates are already slipping his way along with polls in upcoming states.

EDIT: hillary would need 728 of the remaining delegates to say she won without using her superdelegate advantage. still possible, but much less likely than an obama win.

what is a superdelegate?

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