OK, say you have 1000 people. That makes 510 for Bush and 450 for Kerry. Say 50% of Bush supporters vote. That's 255 Votes for Bush. Kerry supporters need a 57% turnout to beat that with 256 votes. If Bush gets a 60% turnout, we need 69%. If Bush gets 40%, we need 46%. It's all about turnout! Go vote regardless of the polls!